Generation Capacity Expansion Under Long-Term Uncertainties in the Us Electric Market


Alexandre Klein, Julian Bouchard, Sabine Goutier

In this paper, we deal with generation capacity expansion under long-term uncertainties regarding fuel prices and CO2 emissions regulation. We present a model based on stochastic dynamic programming which gives optimal generation investment planning for perfectly competitive power markets. It is applied to the US continuous electricity market with DOE's fuel price scenarios. We show that taking into account uncertainties on fuel costs and on CO2 emissions regulation can change the optimal investment decisions. Moreover, we show that, for generators, the level of risk-aversion is a major factor influencing the investment decisions.

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