Margaret Armstrong et Alain Galli (ENMP)

Over the next 10-15 years, major changes will occur to the electricity system in France: two new third generation nuclear reactors are being built, several new gas-fired plants have been commissioned; wind power will be introduced and so will electric vehicles (EVs). The question is: Will the increases in the generation fleet will be sufficient to cover the additional power required for the EVs? The standard way of evaluating the impact of the introduction of wind power and of EVs on day-ahead electricity prices is by assuming the aggregate offers to sell power will be the same as the full merit order and that demand is inelastic. While this approach is suitable if all electricity must be sold on the day-ahead market, this is not the case in France where only 10-20% is sold via the day-ahead market. By studying the evolution of the aggregate curves to buy and sell power, we demonstrate that these assumptions are inappropriate in France and propose an alternative way of simulating future prices by simulating the aggregate curves.