Archives

5
May

Ergodic control of a heterogeneous population and application to electricity pricing - Q. Jacquet, W. van Ackooij, C. Alasseur & S. Gaubert

We consider a dynamic pricing model, in which a population of customers can change contracts at any time depending on pricing conditions and customer-specific characteristics such as inertia (propensity to ...

17
Jan

Day-ahead probabilistic forecast of solar irradiance: a Stochastic Differential Equation approach - J. Badosa, E. Gobet, M. Grangereau and D. Kim

In this work, we derive a probabilistic forecast of the solar irradiance during a day at a given location, using a stochastic differential equation (SDE for short) model. We propose ...

11
Dec

REGRESSION MONTE CARLO FOR MICROGRID MANAGEMENT - C. ALASSEUR, A. BALATA, S. BEN AZIZA, A. MAHESHWARI, P. TANKOV AND X. WARIN

We study an islanded microgrid system designed to supply a small village with the power produced by photovoltaic panels, wind turbines and a diesel generator. A battery storage system device ...

11
Dec

Variance optimal hedging with application to Electricity markets - Xavier Warin

In this article, we use the mean variance hedging criterion to value contracts in incomplete markets. Although the problem is well studied in a continuous and even discrete framework, very ...

23
Jul

Estimating fast mean-reverting jumps in electricity Market models - Thomas Deschatre, Olivier Féron, and Marc Hoffmann

Based on empirical evidence of fast mean-reverting spikes, we model electricity price processes as the sum of a continuous Itö semimartingale and a a mean-reverting compound Poisson process. In a first part, ...

18
Jun

t and stable multivariate kernel density estimation by fast sum updating - N . Langrené, X. Warin

Kernel density estimation and kernel regression are powerful but computationally expensive techniques: a direct evaluation of kernel density estimates at M evaluation points given N input sample points requires a ...

18
Jun

Monte Carlo for high-dimensional degenerated Semi Linear and Full Non Linear PDEs - X. Warin

We extend a recently developed method to solve semi-linear PDEs to the case of a degenerated diffusion. Being a pure Monte Carlo method it does not su er from the so ...

18
Jun

Option valuation and hedging using asymmetric risk function: asymptotic optimality through fully nonlinear Partial Differential Equations - Emmanuel Gobet, Isaque Pimentel, Xavier Warin

Discrete time hedging produces a residual risk, namely, the tracking error. The major problem is to get valuation/hedging policies minimizing this error. We evaluate the risk between trading dates through ...

24
May

Nesting Monte Carlo for high-dimensional Non Linear PDEs - Xavier Warin

A new method based on nesting Monte Carlo is developed to solve highdimensional semi-linear PDEs. Convergence of the method is proved and its convergence rate studied. Results in high dimension ...

13
Nov

Assessing the implementation of the Market Stability Reserve

Corinne Chaton, Anna Creti, and Maria-Eugenia Sanin, Abstract In October 2015 the European Parliament has established a market stability reserve (MSR) in the Phase 4 of the EU-ETS, as part ...

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